When Candidate Exclusion Is Viewed as Unfair: Survey Experimental Evidence from Russia. [elections]

Under review [access paper]. The findings of this experiment, conducted shortly before parliamentary elections, show that when information about opposition candidates’ popularity is available (not necessarily uncommon in autocracies), their exclusion from elections tends to raise suspicions of manipulation among a substantial share of moderate regime supporters. Yet, most loyal pro-government voters remain unaffected.

When Names Win Votes: Understanding the (In)effectiveness of Clone Candidates. [elections]

Working paper (w/ Ekaterina Paustyan) [more on data]. Using electoral and biographical data (> 20,000 obs.), this study shows that in Ukraine’s parliamentary elections, “clone” candidates—individuals posing as real politicians to siphon votes from them—tend to perform better in less urbanized districts, and when they are listed above the genuine candidates on the ballot. This suggests that more educated voters with better access to diverse media, who are more likely to reside in larger cities, tend to exhibit greater resilience to electoral manipulation.

Ukraine-Related Disinformation in Belarusian Pro-Government Telegram Channels. [internet]

Paper in Media, War & Conflict (w/ Alesia Rudnik). Drawing on qualitative content analysis, the study examines how Belarusian pro-government Telegram channels disseminate disinformation related to the Russo-Ukrainian war and Ukraine more broadly. Although Belarus is aligned with Russia, the overall volume of such content is relatively low; however, most of the disinformation can be traced to Russian sources.

Internet Shutdowns and Political Attitudes in Wartime Russia. [internet]

Work in progress (w/ Anastasiia Arbuzova). This study examines whether routine mobile internet shutdowns in Russia shape public attitudes toward the war in Ukraine, as well as toward regional authorities. We expect regions with more frequent shutdowns to show greater support for peace talks. We also assess whether prolonged exposure to shutdowns and “white lists” of approved services accelerates adoption of state-controlled social media platforms.

Pro-Regime Rallies as Signals of Autocrats’ (Un)popularity. [mass mobilization; elections]

Work in progress (w/ Anastasiia Arbuzova, Fabian Burkhardt, Jan Matti Dollbaum). Do regime supporters revise their assessments of government popularity when presented with information about coerced (involuntary) participation in pro-government rallies? Building on pilot studies conducted in Russia and Belarus, this survey experiment—planned for after the 2026 State Duma elections in Russia, where pro-Kremlin demonstrations have been common since the 2010s—examines whether motivated reasoning inhibits such belief updating.

Exploring Citizens’ Passivity and Activation in Non-Democratic Contexts. [mass mobilization]

Special issue editor (w/ Henrike Rudolph). This special collection in the journal Global Perspectives aims to map the diverse forms of political passivity, ranging from behavioral and cognitive disengagement to phenomena such as “hapathy” and resignation. Our goal is to understand how governments in non-democracies, including hybrid regimes, interpret and respond to different manifestations of passivity, as well as how they conduct state-sponsored mass mobilization campaigns.